Wayne Gordon and Giovanni Staunovo, senior strategists at the investment office of the global finance company UBS Global Wealth Management;
Warned in a note dated November 17 that although recent consumer price growth will begin to weaken in the first half of next year, it may prove to be a longer-term problem.
Experts have raised their gold price forecasts by $50-100 dollars. Gold jumped by 50 dollars after the publication of US inflation data, breaking the technical barrier in the face of the $1.835 mark. The rapid jump in the consumer price index (CPI) in October, which reached the highest level in the last three decades at 6.2%, provoked a new wave of changes in world rates and currencies, as well as the price of precious metals.
The yield of ten-year American TIPS fell to a record low of -1.2%. The dollar rose, which usually harms the gold medal, but investors ignored this fact, focusing on the traditional role of gold as a means of hedging inflation. According to estimates, at the moment, the fair value of gold is 1,880 dollars per ounce. Forecast, there is a risk of a further increase in consumer prices at the beginning of 2022, which may increase demand for gold.
In addition, recent “hawkish” comments by some members of the US Federal Reserve System have led to a smoothing of the yield curve, which has only increased the attractiveness of gold. Nevertheless, Gordon and Staunovo still believe that the pace of price growth will slow down slightly, but more expensive housing and the consequences of higher wages may remain with us for some time.
Lower inflation expectations and higher nominal rates should lead to accurate rates in the US will eventually rise (and put pressure on gold), but experts said this would probably take longer.
target value for the gold price end of March 2022 was raised to 1,800 dollars (from $ 1,700), end of 2022 — to $1,650 (from $ 1,600).
Experts also recognized a tendency for the precious metal to grow in the short term and cannot rule out a temporary excess of $1,900.